Bank of Canada maintains policy rate | February sees some buyers returning

Bank of Canada (BOC) maintained its policy rate on March 6th. BOC is done raising rates for the moment, and the question is whether they’ll do so on the next announcement date in June. We are now nearing the second anniversary of the first rate increase by the BOC. After the initial shock and the ensuing correction, GTA’s real estate market has been surprisingly robust. February has seen some buyers returning to the market. This led to an increase in sales compared to January and the market shifting into a slight seller’s market overall, specifically for entry-level low-rise properties.

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The market in February

Inventory supply increased in all areas of the GTA in February on average by 7% from January. Sales (demand) shot up by an average of 24% across the GTA leading to a tighter market and the resurgence of multiple offers on some properties. There is a hint of returning buyer confidence but it’s not consistent and fluctuations can be expected for the next little while.

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The absorption rate or months of inventory (M.O.I. for short) is deemed the most accurate way to pinpoint whether a market is in favour of sellers or buyers. Found by comparing home sales versus how many listings are currently on the market, M.O.I. essentially asks the question: How long would it take for every single property to sell if no new homes were put up for sale?

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Low-rise (detached, semis & townhouses)

The detached market in the GTA was strong in February with slight to moderate upward pressure on prices. Durham region is the hottest (0.98 M.O.I.) in the GTA. Followed by Toronto (1.42 M.O.I.), & Dufferin Region (1.44 M.O.I.), Peel Region (1.85 M.O.I.) & York Region (1.91 M.O.I.), all of which are experiencing a slight seller’s market. Entry-level detached properties often sell with multiple offers, because they attract a larger buyer pool.

In Simcoe Region (2.29 M.O.I.), detached homes are in a balanced market with no noticeable pressure on prices in either direction.

Semi-detached homes are scorching hot again in all areas of the GTA, in large part due to affordability, with an absorption rate below 1 month of inventory across the board. Freehold townhouses are also in seller’s market territory but not nearly as much as semis. Absorption rates hover around 1 to 1.5 months of inventory with slight to moderate upward pressure on prices and multiple offers being common, especially entry-level units.

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Condo apartments

Condo apartments are now in a balanced market, a slight change from the winter where some areas experienced a slight to moderate buyer’s market with downward pressure on prices.

As indicated by the months of inventory report, York Region (2.76 M.O.I.), Peel Region (2.75 M.O.I.), and Toronto (3.53 M.O.I.), are in a balanced market. Condo units that show well, have a good layout and an attractive price tend to sell relatively fast while overpriced units or ones that don’t make an effort at a good presentation tend to languish and often don’t sell. Condo townhouses are on the same path, as they are in a balanced market without any movement in prices in either direction.

The rental market

The rental market has cooled significantly since last fall. While the Q1 rental market report isn’t out yet, anecdotally I see that prices have come down approximately 5% to 10% depending on the area. It also takes longer to lease out a unit when compared to last summer and fall.

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