To the surprise of many, the GTA housing market has exceeded all expectations with its quick rebound. Both sellers and buyers have returned back to the market in June. However, the demand (sales volume) far exceeded the increase in supply (listings). Month over month figures show that listings are up by an average of 22% compared to May, while sales volume has skyrocketed by an astounding average of 98% compared to May. This has caused upward pressure on prices in all areas of the GTA. Pent up demand from March, April and May is still very high but I wouldn’t bet on this continuing throughout all of 2020.
Another trend that’s developed is that high rise condos seem to be cooling off just a tad while the low rise segment is absolutely on fire at the moment. Over the past several years it has been slightly different with condos gaining significantly more in value (in terms of percentage gain) than low rise properties, especially during the downturn of 2017. I’m sure COVID-19 has something to do with that trend, as more home buyers are looking for backyards and a piece of land that they can use in more ways than a condo. The next potential trend to look out for could be a larger number of buyers moving outside of the downtown core. As workplaces become increasingly remote, long commutes downtown are becoming less of a concern.
LOW-RISE (detached, semi, & townhomes)
As indicated by the months of inventory report or MOI, in June detached homes have seen a trend towards a very strong seller’s market. Detached home prices in Durham (1.1 M.O.I.), Peel (1.4 M.O.I.), Halton (3.0 M.O.I.), and Toronto (1.7 M.O.I.), have seen a scorching hot seller’s market in June. Vaughan 2.4 M.O.I. has been close behind with slight upward pressure on prices. Semi-detached houses have been even hotter with significant upward pressure on prices in the month of June. The entire GTA has an absorption rate below 1 M.O.I. Bidding wars are the norm for this segment at the moment and every property sells for more than the last comparable. Freehold & condo townhomes have heated up again after cooling off for the past few months with very strong upwards pressure on prices across the board. (below 1.5 M.O.I.).
HIGH-RISE (condo apartments)
The condo market was on a slight upward trend in June, a contrast to April and May. As you can see in the MOI report, the entire GTA is in a slight seller’s market right now with slight upward pressure. Peel (2.4 MOI), Toronto (2.4 MOI), Halton (1.8 MOI), & Durham (1.8 MOI) with York being the only region that has remained in a relatively balanced market (3.2 M.O.I.).
How is the July market so far?
As you can see by the graph above, showings and offers have continued to move up while listing inventory has remained tight throughout the pandemic. Based on my own experience in the field and the stats above, July should be another scorcher of a month for sellers in the GTA,.
